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Iran war going beyond four weeks from now could trigger global recession: Neelkanth Mishra
Neelkanth Mishra, Head of Global Research at Axis Capital and Chief Economist at Axis Bank, says the Iran conflict is a major macro risk for India given its heavy dependence on energy imports. A prolonged disruption could wipe out around 7% of global energy supply and raise the risk of a global recession if it lasts beyond four weeks. While the impact on growth, inflation and currency may be one-time, supply shocks and second-order effects could worsen. Markets may need to panic before a resolution emerges. Axis Bank stock was trading at ₹1,221 at 9:37 am on the NSE, up over 16% in the past year.
Watch | Sanjay Parekh on where he sees value in banks, IT, cement and telecom stocks
Sohum Asset Managers’ Founder & CIO, Sanjay Parekh, says markets look sluggish despite improving macro conditions, with Q3 Nifty earnings near 8–9%. He sees recovery in CVs (Ashok Leyland), credit growth at ICICI Bank and gradual picka a up in cement and steel. Portfolio stays domestic-focused: overweight telecom, NBFCs, industrials, cement, utilities, ports and logistics; underweight oil & gas and banks, zero FMCG. Watching IT names like Infosys and TCS, mid-cap tech (Persistent, Coforge, Mastek), defence HAL, quick commerce Zomato and Swiggy, and capital goods L&T, JSW Energy.